10Y Treasury Yield
01 / RATES · 6mo daily
Trigger: break below 4.00% with conviction
Earliest tell. Mortgage rates follow the 10Y by 1–2 weeks.
FRED · DGS10
30Y Fixed Mortgage
02 / RATES · 6mo weekly
Trigger: print below 6.00% on Freddie's Thursday release
The single number that unlocks builder demand. Updates Thursdays at noon ET.
FRED · MORTGAGE30US
ITB / SPY · 20-Day Relative Strength
03 / FLOWS · 6mo daily
Trigger: 3+ weeks of ITB outperforming SPY
Institutional rotation shows up here weeks before fundamentals confirm.
Stooq · ITB.US, SPY.US
Single-Family Permits
04 / SUPPLY · 12mo monthly
Trigger: 2 consecutive months of MoM increase
Permits lead starts by ~1 month. Released ~17th of each month by Census.
FRED · PERMIT1
NAHB Housing Market Index
05 / SENTIMENT · 13mo monthly
Trigger: above 40 headline; sustained above 50 = bullish
Builder confidence. Released mid-month by NAHB.
Mortgage News Daily · NAHB
MBA Purchase Index
06 / DEMAND · weekly · accumulating
Trigger: sustained move above 175 with rising trend
Refi apps are noisy. Purchase apps = real buyers. Released Wednesdays.
MND · MBA · seeded with public anchors